Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Control and Stochastic Modeling of COVID-19 Spread Based on Vaccination and Social Distancing Rates

Background and objective : Besides efforts on vaccine discovery, robust and intuitive government policies could also significantly influence the pandemic state. However, such policies require realistic virus spread models, and the major works on COVID-19 to date have been only case-specific and use deterministic models. Additionally, when a disease affects large portions of the population, countries develop extensive infrastructures to contain the condition that should adapt continuously and extend the healthcare system's capabilities. An accurate mathematical model that reasonably addresses these complex treatment/population dynamics and their corresponding environmental uncertainties is necessary for making appropriate and robust strategic decisions. Methods : Here, we propose an interval type-2 fuzzy stochastic modeling and control strategy to deal with the realistic uncertainties of pandemics and manage the size of the infected population. For this purpose, we first modify a previously established COVID-19 model with definite parameters to a Stochastic SEIAR (S2EIAR) approach with uncertain parameters and variables. Next, we propose to use normalized inputs, rather than the usual parameter settings in the previous case-specific studies, hence offering a more generalized control structure. Furthermore, we examine the proposed genetic algorithm-optimized fuzzy system in two scenarios. The first scenario aims to keep infected cases below a certain threshold, while the second addresses the changing healthcare capacities. Finally, we examine the proposed controller on stochasticity and disturbance in parameters, population sizes, social distance, and vaccination rate. Results : The results show the robustness and efficiency of the proposed method in the presence of up to 3% noise and 50% disturbance in tracking the desired size of the infected population. The proposed method is compared to Proportional Derivative (PD), Proportional Integral Derivative (PID), and type-1 fuzzy controllers. In the first scenario, both fuzzy controllers perform more smoothly despite PD and PID controllers reaching a lower mean squared error (MSE). Meanwhile, the proposed controller outperforms PD, PID, and the type-1 fuzzy controller for the MSE and decision policies for the second scenario. Conclusions : The proposed approach explains how we should decide on social distancing and vaccination rate policies during pandemics against the prevalent uncertainties in disease detection and reporting.

Interval type-2 Fuzzy control and stochastic modeling of COVID-19 spread based on vaccination and social distancing rates.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Besides efforts on vaccine discovery, robust and intuitive government policies could also significantly influence the pandemic state. However, such policies require realistic virus spread models, and the major works on COVID-19 to date have been only case-specific and use deterministic models. Additionally, when a disease affects large portions of the population, countries develop extensive infrastructures to contain the condition that should adapt continuously and extend the healthcare system's capabilities. An accurate mathematical model that reasonably addresses these complex treatment/population dynamics and their corresponding environmental uncertainties is necessary for making appropriate and robust strategic decisions. METHODS: Here, we propose an interval type-2 fuzzy stochastic modeling and control strategy to deal with the realistic uncertainties of pandemics and manage the size of the infected population. For this purpose, we first modify a previously established COVID-19 model with definite parameters to a Stochastic SEIAR (S2EIAR) approach with uncertain parameters and variables. Next, we propose to use normalized inputs, rather than the usual parameter settings in the previous case-specific studies, hence offering a more generalized control structure. Furthermore, we examine the proposed genetic algorithm-optimized fuzzy system in two scenarios. The first scenario aims to keep infected cases below a certain threshold, while the second addresses the changing healthcare capacities. Finally, we examine the proposed controller on stochasticity and disturbance in parameters, population sizes, social distance, and vaccination rate. RESULTS: The results show the robustness and efficiency of the proposed method in the presence of up to 1% noise and 50% disturbance in tracking the desired size of the infected population. The proposed method is compared to Proportional Derivative (PD), Proportional Integral Derivative (PID), and type-1 fuzzy controllers. In the first scenario, both fuzzy controllers perform more smoothly despite PD and PID controllers reaching a lower mean squared error (MSE). Meanwhile, the proposed controller outperforms PD, PID, and the type-1 fuzzy controller for the MSE and decision policies for the second scenario. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed approach explains how we should decide on social distancing and vaccination rate policies during pandemics against the prevalent uncertainties in disease detection and reporting.

Trends in Residency Applicant Volume in Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery and Peer Specialties.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the 2020 to 2021 Otolaryngology residency application cycle in the context of recent trends. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective data analysis. SETTING: Disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic may significantly alter trends among residency applicants, especially in highly competitive and/or smaller specialties. METHODS: Applicant and residency statistics from Electronic Residency Application Service (ERAS) and National Residency Matching Program (NRMP) were extracted from the 2016 to 2021 and 2011 to 2021, respectively. Trends in Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery (OHNS) were compared to peer specialties (PS) including Dermatology, Neurological Surgery, Orthopedic Surgery, and Integrated Pathway for Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery (PRS). The ratio of the number of applicants per positions (APP) was used to reflect the degree of competition. RESULTS: Between 2011 and 2021, the number of OHNS programs and positions expanded less than those of PS and General Surgery. The increase in the APP ratio was significantly greater for OHNS compared to those Dermatology, Orthopedic Surgery, General Surgery and all PGY1 residency positions for both US MD and all applicants (P < .01 for each). OHNS expansion of US MD (P = .046), but not all applicants (P = .169), outgrew that of Neurosurgery. CONCLUSION: The 2020 to 2021 cycle affected by the COVID-19 pandemic saw a continuation of the recent trend in the expanding OHNS applicant pool. OHNS remains one of the specialties with the highest APP ratio and has observed a significant growth compared to PS since 2018. Understanding and anticipating trends in residency application cycles is critical for designing processes to optimize the best fit between applicants and programs.

Effects of COVID-19 on Facial Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery Fellowship Training and Director Practices.

OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this study include characterizing the practice patterns and testing strategies of facial plastic and reconstructive surgery (FPRS) fellowship directors (FDs) secondary to COVID-19 and to quantify the impact of COVID-19 on FPRS fellowship training. STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey. SETTING: Online. METHODS: A survey was sent to all American Academy of Facial Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery FDs and co-FDs in September 2020. Descriptive analyses were performed. RESULTS: Of 77 eligible FDs, 45 responded (58.4%) representing a diverse group across the United States. All but 1 FD routinely screened patients for COVID-19 in the preoperative setting. FDs largely believed that universal preoperative testing was cost-effective (66.7%), improved patient safety (80.0%) and health care worker safety (95.6%), and was not burdensome for patients (53.3%). With regard to volume of cosmetic/aesthetic, reconstructive, facial nerve, and trauma surgery, FDs indicated largely no change in volume (34.9%, 71.0%, 68.4%, and 80.0%, respectively) or fellow experience (67.4%, 80.6%, 84.2%, and 80.0%). Half (50.0%) of the FDs reported decreased volume of congenital/craniofacial surgery, but 75.0% did not believe that there was a change in fellow experience. Overall, of the 15 responses indicating "worsened training" across all domains of FPRS, 14 were located in the Northeast (93.33%). CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic has had the least impact on the volume of reconstructive procedures, facial nerve operations, and trauma surgery and a negative impact on congenital/craniofacial surgery volume, and it has accelerated the demand for cosmetic/aesthetic operations. Overall, the majority of FDs did not feel as though their fellows' trainings would be adversely affected by the ongoing pandemic.

Telemedicine Practices of Facial Plastic and Reconstructive Surgeons in the United States: The Effect of Novel Coronavirus-19.

Introduction: The objectives of this study among facial plastic and reconstructive surgeons (FPRS), include (1) quantifying the use of telemedicine, (2) examining the impact of novel coronavirus-19 (COVID-19) on telemedicine practices, (3) highlighting the types of telemedicine employed, (4) anticipating how telemedicine will be utilized in the future, and (5) describing FPRS' attitudes and understanding of telemedicine technologies. Study Type: Cross-sectional survey. Methods: A 6-13 question survey was sent to the American Academy of Facial Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery membership. Descriptive analyses were performed, along with a Fisher's exact test. Results: We received 100 responses from a diverse group of surgeons across the United States. Overall, 91% of responders utilize telemedicine, of which 76.9% began during the COVID-19 pandemic. 33.3% of responders thought that their platforms were not Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act compliant or were unsure. Of those that utilize telemedicine, the two biggest concerns were difficulties with physical examination (69.2%) and lack of human connection (44%). 75.8% of telemedicine utilizers plan to incorporate telemedicine into their practice moving forward. Of all responders, 71% believed that telemedicine will have a positive effect on the field of FPRS, although on univariate analysis those in practice >20 years were more likely to believe that there will be no effect or a negative effect (p = 0.014). Conclusions: The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the adoption of telemedicine among FPRS in the United States. The great majority of responders plan to incorporate telemedicine into their practice even after the pandemic subsides and believe that telemedicine will have a net positive effect on the field of FPRS.

The Potential for Telemedicine to Reduce Bias in Patients Seeking Facial Plastic Surgery.

Telemedicine use among otolaryngologists-head and neck surgeons and facial plastic and reconstructive surgeons has accelerated as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, it is unclear what impact the increased adoption of telehealth will have on the doctor-patient relationship, patients' perceptions of individual practices, and the likelihood of patients proceeding with the next steps toward surgery. While an understanding of these complex questions is imperative for all otolaryngologists, it is extremely important for facial plastic surgeons who focus on elective procedures, particularly cosmetic/aesthetic operations. The use of telemedicine has the potential to reduce bias among patients seeking facial plastic surgery, especially cosmetic procedures. As reports of this phenomenon are anecdotal thus far, we recommend further study into the specific criteria that patients consider when selecting a facial plastic surgeon.

A Guide to Developing Safety Protocols for International Craniofacial Outreach Programs During the COVID-19 Era.

ABSTRACT: The ongoing COVID-19 outbreak has created obstacles to health care delivery on a global scale. Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), many of which already suffered from unmet surgical and medical needs, are at great risk of suffering poor health outcomes due to health care access troubles brought on by the pandemic. Craniofacial outreach programs (CFOP)-a staple for craniofacial surgeons-have historically provided essential care to LMICs. To date, there has not been literature discussing the process of resuming CFOP mission trips. Herein, we propose a roadmap to help guide future journeys, as well as summarize practical considerations.